Signal Or Noise? Fact Checking The Solar Market Outlook With Satellites

Synopsis

Do consensus expectations for U.S. solar capacity growth match what’s actually happening on the ground? Are new construction starts in utility solar accelerating or decelerating? Predictive data constructed from thousands of real-time images of large U.S. solar projects sometimes tells a different story than the mainstream narrative. Recent observations include:

• Dirtwork Much Better Than Feared.  New activity has been much stronger than generally thought among the industry.
• Panel Installations Still Dragging…  Tracking actual panel deliveries, Lium satellite data is consistent with anecdotes and panel import suggesting lower installation activity.
• …But Construction Booming.  Projects under construction are up 25% from a year ago and have inflected higher recently with a surge of new construction starts and panel delays setting up big growth into 2023.